India Inc. Wants to Invest. But How Much of the Plan Gets Real?

India’s National Statistical Office’s ongoing Forward-Looking Survey on Private Corporate Sector CAPEX Investment Intentions for 2026 aimed at generating information on capital expenditure undertaken and planned by large private corporate sector enterprises gives us a picture. Using this data the government understand investment trends in the Indian economy. The survey looks at investments by large private corporate companies and where they plan to put their money. Through the survey the government intends to collect information on CAPEX undertaken in the current financial year and investment intentions for the forthcoming financial year.

Since all companies, big, medium or even small decide in advance what it wants to build, how much it expects to spend and when the project should begin their investment plans can narrate stories about where businesses think the economy is going.

The survey covers large private corporate sector enterprises registered with the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) across sectors of the economy. The previous such a Forward-Looking Survey was conducted in 2024-25.

LEAP analysed the two consecutive surveys. One number immediately stands out. Manufacturing accounted for 50.17% of total CAPEX in 2025-26, up from 43.8% in the previous survey. Information and communication came next at 16.38% from XX in last survey. Transportation and storage, meanwhile, saw its share fall from 14% to 5.55%

At first sight, this looks like a strong manufacturing story. But investment plans come with an important question: how much of the planned spending actually happens?

For the companies that could be followed across both surveys, planned average CAPEX for 2024-25 was ₹180.2 crore per enterprise. Actual spending was ₹173.5 crore, giving a Realisation Rate (RR) of 96.3%. In simple terms, actual spending was quite close to the border line what these companies had planned. The gap was about ₹6.7 crore per enterprise.

That is encouraging, but even a small gap can tell us a story. A project may be delayed, costs may change, or a company may scale down its plans. Some projects may even be dropped. The overall number cannot tell us exactly what happened. It can also hide differences between sectors, with some spending more than planned and others spending less.

There is another number that needs careful reading. The first survey reports that aggregate CAPEX increased by 23.9% between 2021-22 and 2025-26 for enterprises reporting across the period. This is the total increase over the period, not an annual growth rate. Spread over the five yearly intervals, it works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 5.5%

Future rounds could make the picture clearer by showing planned and actual investment separately for major sectors and different firm sizes. They could also track delayed projects across years.

Investment intentions tell us what businesses hope to do. The bigger story is how much of that intention finally turns into factories, machines and investment on the ground.

The difference matters because investment did not rise steadily each year. CAPEX moved up and down over the period. The 5.5% figure therefore tells us the average yearly pace between the starting and ending points, rather than what happened in each individual year.

There is also reason to look carefully at who the survey covers. The first survey focused on larger private corporate companies and so does this one. Its frame contained 16,025 enterprises, selected using turnover limits for different sectors. This means the investment plans of smaller businesses are less visible in this picture. But they can contribute to sectoral growth.

Response also matters. The response rate for the census group in the first survey was 58.6%. NSO adjusts for this using company turnover. While this helps, though companies with similar turnover may still have different investment plans.

None of these questions, however, take away the value of the survey. Rather, it shows how the numbers should be read. Investment intentions offer an early view of where companies want to spend. Following them later tells us how much of those plans actually became reality. Of course, macro-economic situation and geo-politics have a role to play in initiating or deferring their plans which cannot be ignored.

For now, manufacturing’s rising share is an important signal. But the bigger story begins after the plan is made: how much of that investment finally turns into factories, machines and other assets on the ground?